Full Report

The numbers behind PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk: as-reported financial statements and company metrics for FY2021–FY2025, traced to the source filings, opened with the share-price history those statements have to justify. Every linked figure opens the exact page of the filing it was printed on, with the statement row highlighted. Amounts in Rp thousands unless noted.

Reading notes: All figures are as printed by the filings, in thousands of Rupiah (the presentation unit stated on every statement page: 'Expressed in Thousands of Rupiah, Unless Otherwise Stated'). Per-share amounts are in full Rupiah. FY2023-FY2025 figures are cited to Erajaya's standalone audited consolidated financial statements for each year (filed on IDX and indexed under quarterly_reports/Q4_FY20xx); FY2021 and FY2022 are cited to the financial-statement section of those years' annual reports. Both are the same audited statements - the standalone filings were used where the indexed text is cleanest. Erajaya's annual filings print two years per statement, so each fiscal year in the tab is cited to its own filing rather than to a comparative column. Expense, tax and outflow lines are recorded negative because the filings print them in parentheses.

Share Price — Available History Since April 2026

The stock closed at IDR 386.00 on Jul 28, 2026 — up 7% over the window shown, trading between IDR 322.00 and IDR 416.00.

Source: market price feed, daily closes, Apr 2026–Jul 2026 — the feed marks this available history as partial. Price return only, excludes dividends.

FY2025 at a Glance

Source: FY2025 consolidated statements [1] [2] [3] [4]. Click any linked figure to open the filing page with the row highlighted.

Net Sales by Product Segment

Net Sales by Product Segment	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cellular phones and tablets	34,352,272,348	38,669,609,544	47,913,750,778	52,431,058,949	60,074,256,980
Operator products	3,494,251,724	2,837,546,388	2,911,414,826	1,672,257,304	1,550,421,394
Computer and other electronic devices	1,932,598,277	2,159,604,192	2,370,824,274	2,638,259,625	3,053,597,318
Accessories and others	3,687,854,347	5,804,723,759	6,943,415,797	8,538,108,789	11,928,620,320
Total external sales	43,466,976,696	49,471,483,883	60,139,405,675	65,279,684,667	76,606,896,012

Source: Notes to the consolidated financial statements - Segment Information (external sales) [5] [6] [7] [8]. Click any linked figure to open the filing page with the row highlighted.

Gross Profit by Product Segment

Gross Profit by Product Segment	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cellular phones and tablets	3,573,019,915	3,661,996,510	4,602,153,432	4,985,346,260	5,292,302,798
Operator products	69,931,750	88,246,777	75,006,574	60,723,316	88,675,938
Computer and other electronic devices	186,304,686	208,285,131	179,534,153	203,569,603	210,900,291
Accessories and others	976,630,456	1,403,015,137	1,591,075,011	2,026,089,309	2,759,435,878
Total gross profit per segment	4,805,886,807	5,361,543,555	6,447,769,170	7,275,728,488	8,351,314,905

Source: Notes to the consolidated financial statements - Segment Information (gross profit per segment) [5] [6] [7] [8]. Click any linked figure to open the filing page with the row highlighted.

Income Statement

Source: Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss and Other Comprehensive Income [1] [2] [3] [4]. Click any linked figure to open the filing page with the row highlighted.

Columns marked E are consensus analyst estimates from S&P Capital IQ (CapIQ), shown alongside reported results for direct comparison; they are not company guidance.

Estimate source: S&P Capital IQ (CapIQ) consensus, as of 2026-07-29. Estimate figures are S&P Capital IQ consensus (vendor data — no filing page links). EPS and net income use the normalized (adjusted) consensus where the street reports it. Consensus revenue sits well below the as-reported line for the last actual year — analysts often model a narrower revenue basis (e.g. net of interest or pass-through costs), so compare trends, not levels. Line-item analyst models (segments, drivers, KPIs) are in the Visible Alpha tab.

Balance Sheet

Source: Consolidated Statement of Financial Position [9] [10] [11] [12]. Click any linked figure to open the filing page with the row highlighted.

Cash Flow

Source: Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows [13] [14] [15] [16]. Click any linked figure to open the filing page with the row highlighted.

Net Sales by Geographic Area

Net Sales by Geographic Area	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Central area	29,106,008,532	31,398,638,803	33,293,152,542	39,068,041,730	45,813,940,768
East area	3,406,908,274	4,268,250,229	6,072,720,248	7,063,139,725	8,321,838,819
West area	10,954,059,890	13,804,594,851	20,773,532,885	19,148,503,212	22,471,116,425
Total net sales	43,466,976,696	49,471,483,883	60,139,405,675	65,279,684,667	76,606,896,012

Source: Notes to the consolidated financial statements - Segment Information (customer location: West = Sumatra and Java; Central = Jabodetabek, Kalimantan, Singapore and Malaysia; East = the remainder) [5] [6] [7] [8]. Click any linked figure to open the filing page with the row highlighted.

Long-Term Record

Fiscal year	Net sales	Operating profit	Profit attributable to owners of the parent company	Basic earnings per share (full amount)	Net cash provided by operating activities	Total equity
FY2016	20,547,128,076	533,549,210	263,755,160	—	1,458,882,374	3,409,161,275
FY2017	24,229,915,014	600,049,648	339,458,191	—	(765,037,485)	3,706,654,519
FY2018	34,744,177,481	1,527,492,147	850,089,697	—	(2,427,388,011)	4,825,618,237
FY2019	32,944,902,671	777,108,166	295,066,452	—	2,430,790,765	4,978,716,552
FY2020	34,113,454,845	1,103,309,375	612,004,625	38.00	2,852,705,359	5,687,996,190
FY2021	43,466,976,696	1,659,382,566	1,012,375,634	64.00	21,739,143	6,462,361,670
FY2022	49,471,483,883	1,792,980,488	1,012,872,953	63.87	427,290,597	7,202,862,872
FY2023	60,139,405,675	1,845,583,337	826,049,833	52.34	882,342,638	8,130,773,615
FY2024	65,279,684,667	2,132,161,993	1,032,546,782	65.42	2,239,318,649	9,057,394,273
FY2025	76,606,896,012	2,434,731,053	1,195,971,727	75.68	225,153,234	10,177,297,005

Source: consolidated statements across filings; older years from the standardized feed [14] [1] [2] [9]. Click any linked figure to open the filing page with the row highlighted.

Operating KPIs

KPI	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Number of retail outlets	1,218	1,689	2,049	2,194	2,333
Depreciation and amortization	537,236,858	645,689,261	910,589,247	1,144,217,349	1,388,995,867

Source: company-reported operating metrics [5] [6] [7] [17]. Click any linked figure to open the filing page with the row highlighted.

Analyst Consensus

Street ratings: 6 strong buy, 1 buy, 1 hold. Consensus: Strong Buy.

Estimate source: S&P Capital IQ (CapIQ) consensus, as of 2026-07-29. Estimate figures are S&P Capital IQ consensus (vendor data — no filing page links). EPS and net income use the normalized (adjusted) consensus where the street reports it. Consensus revenue sits well below the as-reported line for the last actual year — analysts often model a narrower revenue basis (e.g. net of interest or pass-through costs), so compare trends, not levels. Line-item analyst models (segments, drivers, KPIs) are in the Visible Alpha tab.

Traceability

437 of 457 figures on this page (96%) link to the filing page where they are printed — click a linked figure to open the source PDF at that page with the row highlighted. Unlinked figures come from standardized data feeds or pre-filing years.

• All figures are as printed by the filings, in thousands of Rupiah (the presentation unit stated on every statement page: 'Expressed in Thousands of Rupiah, Unless Otherwise Stated'). Per-share amounts are in full Rupiah.

• FY2023-FY2025 figures are cited to Erajaya's standalone audited consolidated financial statements for each year (filed on IDX and indexed under quarterly_reports/Q4_FY20xx); FY2021 and FY2022 are cited to the financial-statement section of those years' annual reports. Both are the same audited statements - the standalone filings were used where the indexed text is cleanest.

• Erajaya's annual filings print two years per statement, so each fiscal year in the tab is cited to its own filing rather than to a comparative column.

• Expense, tax and outflow lines are recorded negative because the filings print them in parentheses.

• FY2016-FY2019 long-term figures come from the standardized data feed (data/financials/*.json) and carry no page links; FY2020 is cited to the comparative column of the FY2021 Annual Report. Basic EPS is left blank for FY2016-FY2019 because those years predate the 2021 five-for-one stock split (par value Rp500 to Rp100) and the feed reports them on the pre-split share basis.

• The numeric feed agrees with the filings on every checked FY2021-FY2025 line (feed values are full Rupiah, i.e. 1,000x the printed thousands). The entries in 'discrepancies' are filing-versus-filing restatements, not feed conflicts.

• Quarterly income-statement and cash-flow figures are single quarters derived from the printed year-to-date statements; Indonesian interim filings present cumulative periods only. Quarterly balance-sheet figures are point-in-time and cited directly. No quarterly cash-flow feed file exists in this run, so the derived quarters could not be cross-checked against a provider series.

• Q4 FY24 and Q4 FY25 are derived from the audited full-year statements less the nine-month interim statements.

• 5 figure(s) differed between the data feed and the filing; the filing value is shown (see the run's metrics/metrics_tab.json for the audit trail).

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PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk's management explains the business in its own materials. The slides below do the most of that work, pulled from the documents preserved in Sources. Each source link opens the complete presentation at that slide in a new tab.

Company Update — 1Q 2026 Financial Statements — 1Q 2026

The current company update: what each vertical is, how the store network is built, and the latest P&L, segment mix and unit economics. · Open the full document →

Company Update — Audited Financial Statements FY2025 — FY 2025

The audited full-year 2025 picture: annual P&L, segment mix, working capital and the volume-versus-price series at full-year scale. · Open the full document →

Company Update FY 2024 — FY 2024

The last overview-style deck: company history, national footprint, the market-share record, and each vertical with its gross margin. · Open the full document →

More from management

Paparan Publik / Public Expose 2026 — 1Q 2026 · 15 pages · The annual IDX public expose, in Indonesian: the same 1Q26 numbers plus a group-at-a-glance page and the conservation and e-waste work. · Open →

Company Update — 9M 2025 — 9M 2025 · 22 pages · The deck just before the iPhone 17 quarter — the -1.7% same-store trough that the FY2025 rebound is measured against. · Open →

Corporate Presentation — 1H 2023 — 1H 2023 · 20 pages · The 2023 corporate deck: the ERAL subsidiary IPO rationale and valuation, and the Malaysia and Singapore store build-out in detail. · Open →

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PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk's annual reports contain management's most considered account of the business. These are the sections, passages and visual pages worth opening in the originals preserved in Sources.

PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk — 2025 Annual Report (Laporan Tahunan) — FY2025

The latest full-year account: 2,333 outlets, Rp76.6tn of sales at a 10.9% gross margin, and the year operating cash flow nearly vanished. · Open the full document →

LAPORAN DIREKSI / REPORT OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTOR — p. 22 · Read the full section →

Management's own account of 2025 — where the 'Consciously Grow' stance came from and how a supplier's calendar moved the year.

The President Director on how Apple's launch calendar reshaped the sales year.

Beyond market-related challenges, Management also faced operational challenges associated with principal business dynamics. The rescheduling of Apple’s key product launches from October 2024 to April 2025 was managed through careful inventory oversight and proactive marketing strategies. As a result, by applying the principle of prudence the Company achieved a significant surge in sales growth during the first half of 2025 immediately after the products became available in the market. This demonstrates Erajaya’s capability to maintain growth momentum even amid shifts in the global product cycle.

p. 24 · Read in context →

SEKILAS TENTANG ERAJAYA / ERAJAYA AT GLANCE — p. 32 · Read the full section →

The business in its own words: an import-distribute-retail chain whose shelf space is rented from other people's brands.

Scale and the principal roster the whole model rests on.

As of December 31, 2025, Erajaya Group continues to expand its network and service reach, operating 2,333 outlets in various cities throughout Indonesia. To ensure service quality, the Company continues to develop strategic partnerships with well-known brands, including Apple, Asus, DJI, Garmin, Google, GoPro, Huawei, Infinix Nokia, Oppo, Realme, Samsung, Vivo, Xiaomi, Hono among others. Erajaya Group also collaborates with leading cellular network operators in Indonesia to distribute their products.

p. 32 · Read in context →

Three verticals in FY2025 — Beauty & Wellness, named in FY2024, is gone.

In addition to strengthening partnership strategies, the Company implements a customer-centric business strategy by actively expanding its business lines through vertical businesses: Erajaya Digital, which focuses on 3C products (Communication, Computers, and Consumer Electronics); Erajaya Active Lifestyle, which focuses on lifestyle-related products and accessories, including IoT devices, accessories, and sports fashion apparel; and Erajaya Food & Nourishment, which focuses on products in the Food, Beverages, & Supermarket sector.

p. 33 · Read in context →

BIDANG USAHA / LINE OF BUSINESS — p. 36 · Read the full section →

Where the newest diversifications are booked — XPENG electric vehicles and a drone-show operator, both outside consumer electronics.

Two 2025 additions to the line of business: EV distribution and drone shows.

The Company operates in the automotive industry sector, focusing on four-wheeled electric vehicles under the global XPENG brand in Indonesia. This business is conducted in collaboration with third parties and managed by PT Era Industri Otomotif. […] The Company also operates in the creative and advertising sector, focusing on the organization of drone show performances for promotional, event, and visual campaign purposes.

p. 38 · Read in context →

TINJAUAN INDUSTRI / INDUSTRY REVIEW — p. 67 · Read the full section →

The demand backdrop management is underwriting: premiumisation, GenAI handsets, and the regulatory gate that reopened iPhone sales.

Indonesia's 2025 handset market and the March 2025 TKDN clearance for the iPhone 16.

The Indonesian smartphone market in 2025 demonstrates strong resilience, with shipment volumes projected to exceed the 40 million unit threshold. This growth is driven by the acceleration of the “premiumization” trend and the massive adoption of Generative AI (GenAI) technology, which has now become the new standard for mid-to high-end devices. The shift in consumer preferences from mere hardware specifications toward AI functionality— such as real-time translation features and advanced digital assistants—provides significant added value to the digital retail ecosystem, particularly in boosting the average selling price (ASP) in the national market. […] experienced a significant rebound following the normalization of supply and the official sales approval of the iPhone 16 series in March 2025 after meeting the 40% Local Content Requirement (TKDN).

p. 67 · Read in context →

TINJAUAN OPERASIONAL / OPERATIONAL REVIEW — p. 69 · Read the full section →

Where the money is actually made: banner-by-banner store counts, and the segment gross margins behind a 10.9% blended rate.

TINJAUAN KEUANGAN / FINANCIAL OVERVIEW — p. 75 · Read the full section →

The income statement walk — sales up 17.4% while selling and distribution costs rose 27.8%, compressing the gross margin.

Selling and distribution expenses grew faster than sales.

Sales and distribution expenses increased by 27.8% from Rp2,995.87 billion to Rp3,829.16 billion. This increase was primarily caused by the increase of payroll expenses, depreciation of right-of-use assets, and advertising and promotional costs, which collectively increased by Rp586.28 billion or 30.3%.

p. 78 · Read in context →

LAPORAN ARUS KAS KONSOLIDASIAN / STATEMENT OF CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOWS — p. 78 · Read the full section →

The year's sharpest number: operating cash flow fell from Rp2,239bn to Rp225bn even as profit rose 17.3%.

Cash from customers rose Rp10.8tn; net operating cash flow fell 89.9%.

The Company recorded cash flows from operating activities consisting of cash receipts from customers amounting to Rp76,266.37 billion (2024: Rp65,461.88 billion). In addition, there were cash receipts from interest income amounting to Rp46.09 billion (2024: Rp38.29 billion). […] Meanwhile, cash used in operating activities consisted of cash payments to suppliers and employees totaling Rp74,945.44 billion.

Net cash provided by operating activities as of the end of 2025 amounting to Rp225.15 billion (2024: Rp2,239.32 billion).

p. 79 · Read in context →

KEMAMPUAN MEMBAYAR UTANG DAN TINGKAT KOLEKTABILITAS PIUTANG / SOLVENCY AND RECEIVABLES COLLECTIBILITY — p. 79 · Read the full section →

The balance-sheet cost of the expansion: current ratio down to 1.16x and debt-to-equity up from 1.40x to 1.84x.

Current liabilities outgrew current assets; the cash ratio fell to 0.12x.

The current ratio decreased from 1.22x in 2024 to 1.16x due to a 57.75% increase in current liabilities, while current assets increased by only 49.49% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the cash ratio decreased from 0.16x to 0.12x due to relatively stable cash and cash equivalents.

p. 79 · Read in context →

Leverage: liabilities up 46.88% against equity up 12.36%.

The debt-to-equity ratio stood at 1.84x, higher than 1.40x in 2024. Meanwhile, the debt-to-assets ratio was 0.65x, higher than 0.58x in the previous year. This increase occurred due to the increase in the Company’s liabilities by 46.88% and the increase in assets by 32.53%. Meanwhile, equity only increased by 12.36%.

p. 80 · Read in context →

SISTEM MANAJEMEN RISIKO / RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM — p. 128 · Read the full section →

Two risks specific to this importer: FX on stock bought in dollars, and import rules that can strand premium inventory.

FX on imported goods plus the 12% VAT step-up, and the IMEI/TKDN import regime.

Global economic uncertainty, which impacts fluctuations in the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar, remains a key risk, considering that the majority of electronic products marketed are imported goods or contain cost components denominated in foreign currencies. In 2025, additional pressure arose from the potential decline in consumer purchasing power due to the adjustment of the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 12%, which began to be widely implemented. […] The Company operates within a dynamic regulatory framework, including policies on import trade procedures, IMEI registration, and Domestic Component Level (TKDN) requirements. Changes in import regulations (such as non-tariff restrictions) in 2025 may affect the availability of premium product inventory across the Company's retail network.

p. 128 · Read in context →

PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk — 2024 Annual Report (Laporan Tahunan) — FY2024

Featured for one contrast: FY2024 describes four verticals and lists banners — Wellings, The Face Shop, Sushi Tei — absent from the FY2025 report. · Open the full document →

Tinjauan Operasional / Operational Review — p. 128 · Read the full section →

The portfolio as management framed it a year earlier, before Beauty & Wellness disappeared from the vertical structure.

FY2024's pull-quote names four verticals, including Erajaya Beauty & Wellness.

“Erajaya Group engages in its business activities as importers, distributors, and retailers of telecommunication devices. By basing its business on customers, or “customercentric” business, the Company actively expands its business lines by opening new categories through 4 business verticals,namely: Erajaya Digital, Erajaya Beauty & Wellness,Erajaya Active Lifestyle, and Erajaya Food & Nourishment.”

p. 128 · Read in context →

More annual reports

PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk — 2023 Annual Report (Laporan Tahunan) — FY2023 · 518 pages · Four verticals and 2,049 outlets: the year net sales grew 21.6% and subsidiary Sinar Eka Selaras was floated on the IDX as ERAL. · Open →

PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk — 2022 Annual Report (Laporan Tahunan) — FY2022 · 526 pages · The four-vertical structure at Rp49.5tn of net sales — the base year for everything the 2025 report compares against. · Open →

PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk — 2021 Annual Report (Laporan Tahunan) — FY2021 · 478 pages · The year the Active Lifestyle (JD Sports JV, August 2021) and Beauty & Wellness (Caring Pharmacy JV, November 2021) verticals were created. · Open →

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Competitors describe PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk's market in their own filings and calls. These verified passages and visual pages show where their strategies meet, using source documents preserved in Sources.

Senheng New Retail Berhad (5305)

The only peer in this run's corpus that filed a readable document, and a genuine competitor: Malaysia's largest listed specialist chain for consumer electrical and electronics goods, operating 116 stores under the Senheng, Grand Senheng and senQ banners. Erajaya's Malaysian subsidiary CG Computers Sdn. Bhd. ended 2025 with 223 outlets there — 115 Urban Republic, 86 Switch (Apple Authorised Reseller), 10 Samsung Experience Stores, 8 Mi and 4 Huawei — so the two chains sit in the same Malaysian malls and street-level locations. The overlap is sharpest in Senheng's senQ format, which the company describes as carrying "a wider range of digital gadgets and smart electronics, predominantly in shopping malls," the assortment Urban Republic and Switch sell; it is thinner in Senheng's white-goods and home-appliance core, where Erajaya's comparable format (Erablue, 181 Indonesian stores at end-2025 against 87 a year earlier) is a domestic rather than a Malaysian business. Exhibits below are confined to the retail-competition material — the corporate profile, MD&A and the risk discussion. Senheng's sustainability statement, governance chapters and AGM notices, which are the bulk of the report, are excluded. Senheng does not name Erajaya anywhere in the document.

How Senheng names its competitive set in a filed risk disclosure: brick-and-mortar retailers, online marketplaces and e-commerce platforms, in that order and with no single rival singled out. Erajaya's Malaysian stores fall in the first bucket; Shopee and Lazada are the unnamed second and third. The stated response is the one that matters for the subject, because it is the same lever Erajaya pulls — affordability through instalment and flexible-ownership schemes (Senang Milik) plus bank and credit-card financing partnerships, rather than headline price. Read alongside the demand statement above it, this is a peer arguing that the post-2022 normalisation in electronics demand is a return to trend rather than a cyclical trough, and that the contested ground is payment terms and access, not discounting. It is the peer's characterisation of its own market and is not independently verified here.

Management Discussion and Analysis — Risks, Challenges, and Mitigation Strategies: The observed moderation in consumer expenditure reflects a normalization of purchasing habits following the surge in demand for home appliances and consumer electronics experienced during 2020-2022. […] The retail industry operates with intense competition, with Senheng facing significant competition from an array of market participants, including brick-and-mortar retailers, online marketplaces, and e-commerce platforms. To sustain its competitive advantage within this environment, Senheng is prioritizing the delivery of appealing value through afordability and flexible ownership solutions, such as our Senang Milik program, designed to facilitate access to essential products. The Group also actively collaborates with a diverse range of financial institutions, such as major banks and credit card providers, to ofer a comprehensive suite of flexible payment solutions and financing schemes, with the aim of providing superior value, convenience, and exceptional service. […] The retail sector is undergoing rapid technological transformation, driven by changing consumer preferences and new technologies. The Group must continuously adapt and innovate its business model, digital platforms, and operational processes to maintain a competitive edge.

p. 17 · Read in context →

The most directly comparable disclosure in the document: Senheng withdrawing from the small-format, mobile-focused store concept — the format Erajaya's Malaysian arm is built on — while adding large experiential stores. The network shrank from 125 to 116 outlets over FY2024, with Senheng Mobile phased out through Q1 2025, six stores upgraded or relocated and three large-format stores opened. Senheng frames this as quality over quantity; the report also records the write-off of fixed assets on the Senheng Mobile closure as one of the charges behind FY2024 net profit falling to RM11.0 million from RM25.0 million (p.16), so the retreat carried a cost. Against this, Erajaya's Malaysian gadget formats moved the other way in aggregate over 2025 — Switch from 83 to 86 outlets and Samsung Experience Stores from 9 to 10, with Urban Republic edging down from 117 to 115. The online figure is the other half of the picture: RM128.3 million, up 54%, but still only about a tenth of the group's RM1,216.9 million revenue, so this is a chain whose e-commerce is growing fast off a small base while its store count contracts.

Management Discussion and Analysis — Fortifying Omnichannel Leadership and Accelerating Digital Growth: In FY2024, we recalibrated our store portfolio, aligning with our focus on innovation, agility, and efective resource allocation. We took several key actions: closure of Senheng Mobile stores to right-size our earlier growth initiative involving small-format mobile-focused brand operation, phased out from FY2024 to the first quarter of 2025; upgrades or relocations of six existing stores; and opening of three new Grand Senheng, Grand Senheng Elite, and senQ stores. Our optimized network stood at 116 stores as at 31 December 2024 (compared to 125 at the end of 2023). […] Our eforts on boosting online market penetration yielded robust online sales growth, reaching RM128.3 million in FY2024, a 54% increase from RM83.5 million in the previous year, underscoring the efectiveness of our digital strategy.

p. 15 · Read in context →

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Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-29.

FY2027 EPS estimates are down 3.1% over 180 days while revenue estimates rose 2.9%

FY2028 carries the same split over 90 days — revenue +2.1%, normalized EPS -2.9%. Neither line has moved at all in the last 30 days, so this is a one-to-six-month-old revision rather than a fresh one. The feed has no 180-day mark for FY2028.

Currency: IDR · Scale: money in millions, billions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.

Metric	FY	180d	90d	30d	Now	Δ90d
EPS (normalized)	FY2027	IDR 93.55	IDR 91.24	IDR 90.63	IDR 90.63	-0.7%
EPS (normalized)	FY2028	—	IDR 107.0	IDR 103.9	IDR 103.9	-2.9%
Revenue	FY2027	IDR 83,927	IDR 85,029	IDR 86,373	IDR 86,373	+1.6%
Revenue	FY2028	—	IDR 96,490	IDR 98,540	IDR 98,540	+2.1%

Consensus has normalized EPS growing faster than revenue in each of the next three years

Currency: IDR · Scale: money in millions, billions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.

Metric	FY2025A	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	YoY	Analysts	Low / high
Revenue	IDR 72,064	IDR 80,171	IDR 86,373	IDR 98,540	—	7	IDR 70,584 / IDR 73,163
EBITDA	IDR 2,826	IDR 3,266	IDR 3,691	IDR 4,021	—	4	IDR 2,346 / IDR 3,221
EPS (normalized)	IDR 69.56	IDR 79.58	IDR 90.63	IDR 103.9	—	6	IDR 62.00 / IDR 73.27
Gross margin	11.3%	11.3%	11.4%	11.5%	—	—	—
Dividend per share	IDR 21.90	IDR 23.20	IDR 26.87	IDR 30.20	—	—	—

Beat / miss record

Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 1 consecutive miss.

Currency: IDR · Scale: money in millions, billions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.

Quarter	Metric	Consensus	Actual	Surprise	Outcome
Q1 FY2026	Revenue	IDR 23,893	IDR 22,413	-6.2%	Miss
Q4 FY2025	Revenue	IDR 20,798	IDR 24,243	+16.6%	Beat
Q3 FY2025	Revenue	IDR 17,151	IDR 17,318	+1.0%	Beat
Q1 FY2025	Revenue	IDR 17,217	IDR 15,882	-7.8%	Miss
Q4 FY2024	Revenue	IDR 17,123	IDR 16,672	-2.6%	Miss
Q4 FY2023	Revenue	IDR 17,076	IDR 17,323	+1.4%	Beat
Q4 FY2022	Revenue	IDR 13,196	IDR 14,531	+10.1%	Beat

Three analysts put FY2028 EBITDA anywhere from 3,306 to 5,156

The FY2027 revenue and normalized EPS ranges each carry seven estimates and are the most informative disagreement on this page. The FY2028 EBITDA range is the widest but rests on three models, which makes it thin coverage more than a settled debate.

Currency: IDR · Scale: money in millions, billions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.

Metric	Period	Mean	Low–high	Spread/mean	Analysts
Revenue	FY2027E	IDR 86,373	IDR 77,003–IDR 93,315	18.9%	7
EPS (normalized)	FY2027E	IDR 90.63	IDR 84.00–IDR 101.1	18.8%	7
EBITDA	FY2027E	IDR 3,691	IDR 3,045–IDR 4,352	35.4%	4
EBITDA	FY2028E	IDR 4,021	IDR 3,306–IDR 5,156	46.0%	3

Six buys, one outperform, one hold — and price targets from 400 to 680

The mean target of 504.3 sits above the median of 450, so the distribution is pulled by its high end rather than centred on it. Seven analysts contribute targets and no analyst carries a sell or underperform rating. This source has no market price, so none of this reads as upside.

Currency: IDR · Scale: money in millions, billions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.

Street view	Reading	Analysts
Recommendation mix	Buy 6, Outperform 1, Hold 1, Underperform 0, Sell 0	8
Consensus score	1.38	8
Target price	mean IDR 504.3; median IDR 450.0; high IDR 680.0; low IDR 400.0	7

Coverage caution: FY2028 rests on three analysts, and several lines carry no count at all

FY2028 revenue, GAAP net income and EBITDA each rest on three estimates and normalized EPS on four, against six or seven on the FY2026 and FY2027 revenue and EPS lines. Free cash flow, capex, cash from operations, net debt and ROE are supplied as a mean only, with no analyst count and no range, so their moves cannot be sized for breadth or dispersion.

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Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 3 brokers · 334 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-09.

Only two brokers carry Erajaya's FY-2026 to FY-2028 lines, so read this as a sample of the street rather than a consensus. Those models sit close together on the top line, and the interesting movement is underneath it: handset gross margin compresses from 9.6% in FY-2025 to 7.4% in FY-2027, while Accessories & Others is modelled to carry the profit growth. The second swing is working capital, where days inventory outstanding jumps from 45.6 to 60.9 days in FY-2026 and the cash conversion cycle from 28.7 to 40.2 days before both unwind. Blended gross margin barely moves through all of it, holding between 10.8% and 11.3%.

Two brokers carry every forward year — these are model points, not a consensus

The FY-2025 column has three brokers and was last revised on 2026-03-04; FY-2026 through FY-2028 have two, with the newest revisions dated 2026-07-09. The only quarterly columns in the feed, 3QFY-2025 and 4QFY-2025, are single-broker and were last touched on 2025-09-11, so their min/max ranges are not dispersion at all. Where a line below drops to one broker, treat it as one analyst's assumption.

Accessories & Others gross profit rises 54% in FY-2026 while handset gross profit falls

Handsets remain the bulk of both revenue and gross profit, but the models take handset gross margin from 9.6% down to 7.4% by FY-2027 and lean on Accessories & Others, modelled at 27.3% gross margin in FY-2026. Accessories is also the least stable line here: its margin fades again through FY-2028 on a wide two-broker range, so the profit hand-off is an assumption to test, not a settled trend. Operator products shrink in every modelled year and turn gross-margin negative by FY-2028.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Segment revenue	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net sales - Cellular phones & tablets(IDRB)	Rp56,768.85bn	Rp61,305.90bn	Rp66,090.89bn	Rp72,701.68bn	+8.0%	3
Net sales - Acessories & Others(IDRB)	Rp10,868.27bn	Rp14,041.96bn	Rp15,791.86bn	Rp16,341.39bn	+29.2%	3
Net sales - Computer & other electronic devices(IDRB)	Rp2,896.26bn	Rp3,324.68bn	Rp3,652.92bn	Rp4,003.54bn	+14.8%	3
Net sales - Operator products(IDRB)	Rp1,641.35bn	Rp1,443.35bn	Rp1,422.20bn	Rp1,394.48bn	-12.1%	3
Segment gross profit	—	—	—	—	—	—
Gross profit/(loss) - Cellular phones & tablets(IDRB)	Rp5,450.78bn	Rp5,008.78bn	Rp4,846.05bn	Rp6,208.68bn	-8.1%	3
Gross profit/(loss) - Acessories & Others(IDRB)	Rp2,413.40bn	Rp3,725.31bn	Rp3,664.89bn	Rp3,049.18bn	+54.4%	3
Margin	—	—	—	—	—	—
Gross margin - Cellular phones & tablets(%)	9.6%	8.2%	7.4%	8.5%	-1.4pt	3
Gross margin - Accessories & Others(%)	22.2%	27.3%	23.9%	18.0%	+5.1pt	3
Gross margin - Operator products(%)	3.8%	10.0%	0.3%	-11.1%	+6.3pt	3
Gross margin - Computer & other electronic devices(%)	7.2%	12.4%	15.6%	16.7%	+5.1pt	3

Handset revenue growth is all price: units fall about 4% in FY-2026 as ASP rises 12%

Unit volumes are modelled essentially flat across the whole horizon while ASP rises in every year, so the handset line depends on the mix continuing to shift up rather than on the Indonesian handset market growing. Store count, net additions and distribution centres come from a single broker from FY-2026 onward, which makes the footprint rows a plan rather than a consensus view.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Units & price	—	—	—	—	—	—
Volume - Cellular phones & tablets(M#)	10.69m Number	10.25m Number	10.50m Number	10.81m Number	-4.1%	3
ASP - Cellular phones & tablets(IDRB)	Rp5.33m	Rp5.98m	Rp6.29m	Rp6.73m	+12.2%	3
Footprint	—	—	—	—	—	—
Retail outlets(#)	2,359 Number	2,571 Number	2,771 Number	2,971 Number	+9.0%	3
Retail outlets - Net addition(#)	146.3 Number	100.0 Number	200.0 Number	200.0 Number	-31.7%	3
Distribution Centers(#)	94.50 Number	103.0 Number	105.0 Number	107.0 Number	+9.0%	2

Inventory builds 49% in FY-2026, stretching days inventory to 60.9 and lifting net debt

The build is funded rather than earned: free cash flow per share is modelled to dip in FY-2026 and then more than double in FY-2027 as days inventory unwinds. Payables absorb only part of the swing, with days payable barely moving against the jump in days inventory, so the cash conversion cycle stretches from 28.7 to 40.2 days. Net debt peaks in FY-2026 and declines thereafter on these models.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Working capital	—	—	—	—	—	—
Inventories, net(IDRB)	Rp8,004.47bn	Rp11,920.32bn	Rp12,080.94bn	Rp12,243.00bn	+48.9%	3
Days inventory outstanding, COGS-based(Days)	45.62 Ratio	60.90 Ratio	57.03 Ratio	53.22 Ratio	+33.5%	3
Days payables outstanding, COGS-based(Days)	25.30 Ratio	29.25 Ratio	29.40 Ratio	26.87 Ratio	+15.6%	3
Cash conversion cycle, COGS-based(Days)	28.71 Ratio	40.21 Ratio	36.29 Ratio	35.02 Ratio	+40.1%	3
Funding & cash	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net debt(IDRB)	Rp4,521.17bn	Rp7,045.42bn	Rp6,238.91bn	Rp5,860.71bn	+55.8%	3
Free cash flow (FCF) per share(IDR)	Rp43.77	Rp36.61	Rp88.96	Rp73.27	-16.4%	3

Segment margins swing hard, but blended gross margin holds between 10.8% and 11.3%

Across FY-2025 to FY-2028 the models move accessories gross margin up to 27.3% and back down, computer and electronics from 7.2% to 16.7%, and operator products to negative, yet blended gross margin never leaves a 10.8% to 11.3% band. On this model set Erajaya's earnings path is a volume, footprint and working-capital story rather than a margin story, which is where a challenge to the street should be aimed.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.

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What Erajaya is

PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk sold Rp76.6 trillion of goods in 2025 and kept Rp1.20 trillion for its owners — 1.6 cents of every rupiah [1]. It is a leading Indonesian importer, distributor and retailer of mobile devices — it runs the country's largest official Apple retail network [2] — now extending into sportswear, groceries and bubble tea. The market values the whole business at about Rp6.2 trillion, roughly four times trailing earnings and two-thirds of book value. The five-year record of cash generation explains most of that discount.

Erajaya buys phones from Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi and other principals, moves them through 70 wholesale distribution points and about 54,000 registered third-party resellers, and sells them through 2,333 of its own retail outlets [3] [4]. The retail estate is a mix of own-brand multi-brand stores and principal-branded shops it operates under licence: 1,104 erafone outlets, 206 iBox (Apple) stores, 181 Erablue electronics stores, 145 Samsung Experience Stores and 86 Mi stores in Indonesia, plus about 240 digital-retail outlets in Malaysia and Singapore [5]. Around that core sit three declared verticals: Erajaya Digital (phones, laptops, operator products), Erajaya Active Lifestyle (Urban Republic, JD Sports, MST Golf, Asics, Anta, DJI, Garmin, and XPENG electric vehicles) and Erajaya Food and Nourishment (Paris Baguette, Chagee, Wetzel's Pretzels, GrandLucky Superstore) [6]. Employees number 6,061, with a further 11,847 contractor and subcontractor staff [7].

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report, Key Financial Data Overview [8] and Stock Overview [9]; H1 2026 interim statements [10]; closing price of Rp386 on 28 July 2026 [11]. Market value uses the 15.95 billion shares in issue. Trailing earnings are FY2025 owner earnings less H1 2025 plus H1 2026, or Rp89.77 per share.

Where the gross profit comes from

Phones and tablets are 78% of sales and 63% of gross profit [12] [13]. They carry an 8.8% gross margin, down from 9.5% the year before. The "accessories and others" line — which is where the lifestyle, apparel, food and beverage businesses sit — is 15.6% of sales at a 23.1% gross margin, and it supplied 33% of group gross profit in 2025 against 27.8% in 2024 [14]. That shift is the arithmetic behind management's diversification story, and it is real: gross profit from the accessories and others line grew 36% in a year while phone gross profit grew 6%.

Source: FY2025 Annual Report, Note 35 Segment Information [15]. Margins and gross-profit shares derived from the reported segment table.

The industry backdrop is genuinely favourable and management describes it plainly: Indonesian smartphone shipments above 40 million units in 2025, 5G device share rising from 25.8% to roughly 35%, and the premium segment recovering after the iPhone 16 series won local-content approval in March 2025 [16]. Rising average selling prices lift Erajaya's revenue almost mechanically. They do not, by themselves, lift the margin on each unit.

From Rp76.6 trillion to Rp1.2 trillion

The income statement is a thin funnel. Gross profit of Rp8.35 trillion (10.9% of sales) is reduced by Rp3.83 trillion of selling and distribution costs and Rp2.79 trillion of general and administrative costs, leaving Rp2.43 trillion of operating profit — 3.2% of sales — after Rp0.75 trillion of other income [17]. Finance costs of Rp641.9 billion then take 26% of that operating profit, tax takes Rp541.1 billion, and minority holders in the listed and unlisted subsidiaries take Rp116.8 billion. Rp1,195.97 billion reaches the parent's owners, or Rp75.68 per share [18].

Two of the larger cost lines are worth naming because they are structural to Indonesian device retail rather than discretionary: Rp749.9 billion of depreciation on leased store space and Rp571.6 billion spent on credit-card instalment sales programmes. Together they consume 15.8% of group gross profit [19].

Sources: FY2023 Annual Report, Summary of Key Financial Data for FY2021–FY2023 [20]; FY2025 Annual Report, Key Financial Data Overview [21]. Margins derived from reported sales, gross profit, operating profit and profit attributable to owners.

The gross margin has sat in a narrow band between 10.7% and 11.1% for five years [22] [23]. The operating margin fell from 3.8% to 3.2% over the same period, and the owner net margin from 2.3% to 1.6%, because the store estate and the interest bill grew faster than gross profit. Sales rose 76% between 2021 and 2025; profit to owners rose 18%.

What the market has paid

Erajaya was a market favourite in 2021. At the end of the second quarter of that year the shares closed at Rp690 and the company was worth Rp11.0 trillion [24]. At Rp386 on 28 July 2026 it is worth Rp6.2 trillion [25]. Sales over the same stretch went from Rp43.5 trillion to Rp76.6 trillion [26] [27]. Across 2023, 2024 and 2025 the shares traded in a band between Rp312 and Rp590 and ended each year within Rp40 of Rp400 [28] [29].

Sources: Stock Highlights tables in the FY2021 [30], FY2023 [31] and FY2025 [32] Annual Reports; sales from the FY2023 [33] and FY2025 [34] Annual Reports.

The arithmetic at Rp386 is undemanding. Trailing twelve-month earnings per share of Rp89.77 — FY2025's Rp75.68 less the Rp36.00 earned in the first half of 2025 plus the Rp50.09 earned in the first half of 2026 — put the shares on 4.3 times earnings [35] [36]. Equity attributable to owners was Rp9.48 trillion at 30 June 2026, so the market pays 0.65 times book [37]. Sell-side coverage is uniformly positive, with a mean twelve-month target of Rp504 [38]. The pessimism is in the multiple, not in the published forecasts.

Where the capital sits

The reason for the multiple is on the balance sheet and in the cash flow statement rather than in the earnings line. Over the five years to 2025 Erajaya reported Rp5.48 trillion of profit and collected Rp3.79 trillion of net operating cash, against Rp3.54 trillion spent on fixed assets — leaving Rp0.25 trillion of free cash flow across five years of reported profit [39] [40] [41] [42]. Lease payments of Rp857.7 billion in 2025 sit below that line, in financing [43]; charge them where a store operator would feel them and the five-year total turns firmly negative.

Sources: consolidated cash flow statements in the FY2022 [44], FY2023 [45] and FY2025 [46] Annual Reports; profit for the year from the FY2023 [47] and FY2025 [48] Annual Reports. Profit includes non-controlling interests; capex is acquisitions of fixed assets and advances for their purchase.

FY2025 is the sharpest illustration. Operating cash flow fell to Rp225.2 billion from Rp2,239.3 billion, because inventories rose 63% to Rp11.64 trillion and total assets rose 32.5% [49] [50]. Short-term bank loans nearly doubled to Rp4.98 trillion to fund it [51]. Total liabilities reached 1.84 times equity and the current ratio slipped to 1.16 [52].

A second, more unusual claim on capital sits in the tax line. Erajaya imports, and Indonesian import withholding tax (Article 22) is levied on the value of goods rather than on profit. In 2025 the parent company alone credited Rp1,655.3 billion of Article 22 tax against a current tax charge of Rp152.1 billion, generating a refund claim of Rp1,550.6 billion for that year alone [53]. Consolidated estimated claims for tax refund stood at Rp3.63 trillion at end-2025, barely changed from Rp3.64 trillion a year earlier [54]. Old claims are collected and new ones replace them; the balance behaves like a permanent, non-interest-bearing loan to the state worth 40% of owners' equity and 59% of the market value of the company. At 30 June 2026 essentially all of it — Rp3.50 trillion of a Rp3.51 trillion total — had been reclassified as non-current, meaning the company no longer expects to recover it within twelve months [55].

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report, Consolidated Statement of Financial Position [56] and Equity [57]; 30 June 2026 interim statements, assets [58], liabilities [59] and equity [60]. Interest-bearing debt sums short-term bank loans, current maturities of long-term bank loans and bonds, and non-current bank loans.

The strongest fact against reading that as a permanent trap is the most recent one. In the six months to June 2026 the working-capital cycle ran the other way: operating cash flow was positive Rp1,864.0 billion, against negative Rp4,911.1 billion in the same period of 2025 [61]. Erajaya used it to repay Rp1,375.5 billion of bank debt, redeem Rp688.7 billion of bonds and buy back Rp97.6 billion of its own shares [62]. Interest-bearing debt excluding leases fell from Rp8.18 trillion to Rp6.16 trillion and the remaining bank borrowing was termed out, with non-current bank loans rising from Rp463.5 billion to Rp2,344.9 billion [63]. Half-year sales rose 22.4% to Rp42.90 trillion, operating profit 28.3% to Rp1,438.7 billion, and profit to owners 38.0% to Rp784.0 billion [64] [65].

Six months is one turn of a seasonal cycle, and inventories were still higher in June 2026 than in December 2025 [66]. The read that fits the evidence is that Erajaya's cash generation is cyclical around a low average rather than absent, and that the discount to book has more to do with how much capital the growth consumes than with doubt about the earnings themselves. Two consecutive years in which operating cash flow, after lease payments, covers capital expenditure and the dividend would settle it; a repeat of 2025's inventory build funded by short-term bank lines would settle it the other way.

Who owns it

PT Eralink Internasional held 55.17% of the shares at the end of 2025, up from 54.51% at the start of the year — the controlling holder added 105.3 million shares during a year in which the stock went nowhere [67]. The annual report names the ultimate beneficial owner as Ms Rebecca Halim [68], and the boards are drawn substantially from the founding family: Budiarto Halim is President Director, Alexander Halim Kusuma President Commissioner [69]. The public float is 43.94% and treasury stock 0.88% [70]; foreign institutions hold 19.24% [71]. A buyback authorised for 2025 was deliberately not executed, which management attributed to market conditions and capital-allocation priorities; a Rp97.6 billion repurchase did follow in the first half of 2026 [72] [73]. Dividends paid in 2025 were Rp299.9 billion, 29% of the previous year's profit attributable to owners [74].

The question this report follows

Erajaya has grown net sales from Rp43.5 trillion to Rp76.6 trillion in five years while its market value fell from Rp11.0 trillion to Rp6.2 trillion. The question this report follows is whether that growth can be converted into cash for owners at a rate that justifies more than the 0.65 times book value and roughly four times earnings the market currently pays — given that the inventory, tax receivables and short-term bank debt the growth requires absorbed almost all of the reported profit over the same period.

Everything that follows bears on one side of that arithmetic or the other: the durability of the phone franchise and the economics of the newer verticals; how much of the balance sheet is genuinely recoverable; what the family that controls 55% of the shares does with the capital; and what has to be true for the discount to close.

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What three years of accounts show

Erajaya's sales grew 12.9% a year over FY2023–FY2025 and profit attributable to owners grew 20.3% a year, but the trading margin did not improve: operating profit before the "other income" line was flat between FY2024 and FY2025, and almost all of the increase in reported operating profit came from foreign-exchange gains and an undisclosed residual. The half year to 30 June 2026 is much stronger than the annual record and much stronger than consensus, which still models FY2026 revenue below the twelve months already reported.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report, Key Financial Data Overview [1]; H1 2026 interim statements [2]. Growth rates and trailing earnings derived from reported figures; trailing EPS is FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026.

The income statement, line by line

The three audited years and the two most recent half years sit below in one frame. Sales rose from Rp60.14 trillion in FY2023 to Rp76.61 trillion in FY2025 [3], and profit attributable to owners from Rp826.0 billion to Rp1,196.0 billion [4] [5]. Basic earnings per share moved Rp52.34, Rp65.42, Rp75.68.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report, Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss [6] and attribution [7]; audited FY2023 statements [8] [9]; 30 June 2026 interim statements, sales and operating profit [10] and profit attributable to owners [11]. Figures rounded to the nearest billion rupiah, so lines may not sum exactly. Finance income and associates combines the two lines as reported.

Three features carry through. The gross margin sits in a narrow band — 10.72%, 11.15%, 10.90% — so gross profit tracks volume, not pricing power. Operating expenses grew faster than gross profit in FY2025: gross profit added Rp1,075.6 billion while selling, distribution, general and administrative costs added Rp1,049.7 billion. And the share of profit leaking to minority holders is rising, from 3.6% of group profit in FY2023 [12] to 8.9% in FY2025 [13] and 10.1% in H1 2026 [14].

Where the extra operating profit came from

Strip the "other income" line out of operating profit and the picture changes. Trading operating profit — gross profit less selling, distribution, general and administrative costs, less other expenses — was Rp1,552.4 billion in FY2023, Rp1,690.5 billion in FY2024 and Rp1,680.9 billion in FY2025. That is a 0.6% decline in the year sales grew 17.4%, and a fall in the trading margin from 2.59% to 2.19% of sales.

Source: derived from the consolidated statements of profit or loss, FY2025 Annual Report [15] and audited FY2023 statements [16]. Trading operating profit is operating profit less other income.

Reported operating profit rose Rp302.6 billion in FY2025. Other income rose Rp312.2 billion. The note behind that line shows what moved: a net foreign-exchange gain of Rp203.0 billion against Rp19.5 billion the year before, and an "Others" residual of Rp186.5 billion against Rp85.2 billion [17]. Those two items together supplied Rp284.7 billion, or 94% of the increase in operating profit. Promotion support from suppliers — the item most tied to the trading business — added only Rp26.8 billion.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report, Note 29 Other Income [18]; audited FY2023 statements, Note 29 [19]. Rp billion. The residual column folds in gains and losses on fixed-asset disposals, lease write-offs and the undisclosed "Others" line.

The same pattern runs through the first half of 2026. Operating profit rose Rp317.0 billion year on year; other income rose Rp192.2 billion of that, with the foreign-exchange gain up Rp31.4 billion and the "Others" residual up Rp105.2 billion to Rp160.0 billion [20]. Trading operating profit did grow — Rp876.3 billion to Rp1,001.1 billion, up 14.2% — but on 22.4% sales growth, so the trading margin still slipped, from 2.50% to 2.33%.

The strongest fact against reading this as low-quality earnings is that foreign-exchange gains on an importer's dollar payables are a real economic outcome, not an accrual: Erajaya buys in dollars and sells in rupiah, so a firmer rupiah genuinely lowers the landed cost of inventory. What is not established is repeatability. A currency gain is a price outcome the company does not control, and the "Others" residual — Rp186.5 billion in FY2025, Rp160.0 billion in six months — is disclosed as a single unexplained figure. My read is that the FY2025 profit growth should be treated as substantially non-recurring until a year appears in which trading operating profit itself grows; the evidence that would settle it is a full year of the "Others" line broken out, or an FY2026 in which trading operating profit grows at least in line with sales.

Cash against reported profit

Over the three years, reported profit and operating cash flow are close in total — Rp3,289 billion against Rp3,347 billion — but neither the year-by-year path nor the after-investment position is comfortable.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report, Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows [21]; audited FY2023 statements, operating and investing [22] and financing [23]; 30 June 2026 interim cash flow statement, operating and investing [24] and lease liabilities in financing [25]. Lease payments sit in financing activities, so operating cash flow is stated before them.

Lease payments are the adjustment that matters for a retailer with this store estate. Erajaya paid Rp2,319 billion of lease liabilities across the three years, all of it classified as financing. Deduct those and the three-year capital expenditure of Rp2,619 billion from Rp3,347 billion of operating cash, and the group consumed Rp1,591 billion of cash over FY2023–FY2025 while reporting Rp3,289 billion of profit. The five-year version of that arithmetic sits in Business and Balance Sheet; the three-year window with leases included is worse, not better.

The second gap is tax. The income statement charged Rp1,326 billion of tax across the three years; the cash flow statement shows Rp3,788 billion actually paid [26] [27]. The difference is the Article 22 import withholding regime: the parent alone credited Rp1,655.3 billion of Article 22 tax in FY2025 against a current tax charge of Rp152.1 billion [28]. The balance sheet carries the result: Rp1,440.2 billion of current and Rp2,187.4 billion of non-current estimated claims for tax refund, plus Rp1,823.1 billion of prepaid taxes, at 31 December 2025 [29]. Whether that Rp5.45 trillion is collectible on the terms the accounts assume is the asset-quality question this chapter does not resolve; what it does establish is that reported earnings and cash have been separated by tax timing, not only by working capital.

H1 2026 is the counter-evidence. Operating cash flow of Rp1,864.0 billion covered capex of Rp434.1 billion and lease payments of Rp493.4 billion [30] with Rp936.5 billion to spare, and cash taxes paid fell to Rp218.4 billion from Rp705.2 billion a year earlier [31].

The half year just filed

Sales for the six months to 30 June 2026 were Rp42.90 trillion against Rp35.05 trillion, up 22.4%; profit attributable to owners was Rp784.0 billion against Rp568.3 billion, up 38.0%; earnings per share Rp50.09 against Rp36.00 [32] [33]. The effective tax rate fell to 24.1% from 29.8% [34].

Part of that growth is a change in the consolidation perimeter rather than trading. PT Era Blu Elektronik — the Erablue electronics venture — appears as a 55.00%-owned subsidiary at 30 June 2026 with total assets before eliminations of Rp1,968.8 billion, against no holding shown for 2025 [35]. Its Rp303.05 billion carrying cost left the joint-venture line on the change of control [36], and it now carries Rp331.2 billion of the Rp1,464.6 billion minority-interest balance [37]. By product line, computers and consumer electronics rose 80.6% and Active and Lifestyle goods rose 244.8%, against 16.7% for cellular phones and tablets [38]. The interim statements do not disclose how much revenue Erablue contributed after consolidation, so the organic growth rate cannot be separated from the filings. That is a real limit on extrapolating the half.

Supplier mix also moved. Purchases from Apple South Asia fell to Rp13.70 trillion, 31.94% of consolidated net sales, from Rp16.59 trillion and 47.35% a year earlier, while Samsung purchases rose to Rp7.06 trillion, or 16.46% [39].

Consensus against the run rate

The consensus set carried in this report is dated 29 July 2026: FY2026 revenue of Rp80.17 trillion and earnings per share of Rp79.58, FY2027 revenue of Rp84.03 trillion and earnings per share of Rp97.50, with a mean twelve-month target of Rp504 and no sell ratings in any of the compilations. Those figures sit against a scheduled reporting date of 30 July 2026, and the corpus does not establish whether individual analysts had already marked their models to the interim statements already lodged.

Sources: actuals from the FY2025 Annual Report [40] and the 30 June 2026 interim statements, sales and profit for the period [41]; FY2026 and FY2027 lines are consensus estimates compiled for this report, dated 29 July 2026. Trailing twelve months is FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026.

The arithmetic of the gap is straightforward. Trailing twelve-month revenue of Rp84.46 trillion already exceeds the FY2027 consensus revenue line of Rp84.03 trillion, and trailing earnings per share of Rp89.77 sits 12.8% above the FY2026 consensus of Rp79.58. For the FY2026 revenue estimate to hold, the second half must deliver Rp37.27 trillion — 10.3% below the Rp41.56 trillion of H2 2025 and 13.1% below the half just reported. For the earnings estimate to hold, second-half earnings per share must be Rp29.49, against Rp39.68 in H2 2025: a 25.7% fall year on year and a 41.1% fall from the half just reported. The second half has been the weaker half on earnings per share in two of the three years available and on revenue in one [42], so a softer H2 is not itself unusual — but the largest sequential decline in the record is 2.9% on revenue, in H2 2024, and 19.9% on earnings per share, in H2 2023. The consensus implies a step down several times larger than either.

Sources: half-year sales from the 30 June 2024 [43] and 30 June 2026 [44] interim statements; full-year sales from the FY2025 Annual Report [45] and audited FY2023 statements [46]. Second-half figures are full year less first half; the final bar is the FY2026 consensus revenue estimate less reported H1 2026.

The FY2027 estimate is internally different in character. Revenue growth of 4.8% on the FY2026 base with earnings per share up 22.5% implies profit to owners of roughly Rp1.53 trillion on Rp84.03 trillion of sales — an owner net margin near 1.82%, above anything the group has posted for a full year, though H1 2026 ran at 1.83%. So the FY2026 number understates a revenue line the company has already passed, while the FY2027 number leans on a margin the company has only held for six months.

Sources: closing price of Rp386 on 28 July 2026 [47]; equity attributable to owners of the parent of Rp9,479.97 billion at 30 June 2026 on 15.95 billion shares in issue [48]; earnings per share as tabulated above. Multiples derived.

At Rp386 the market pays 4.3 times what the company has already earned in the last twelve months and 0.65 times the book value of the equity owners hold. The gap between the consensus multiple of 4.85 times and the trailing multiple of 4.30 times is the difference between an estimate dated before the interim filing and earnings already reported.

What would change the read

Three checks are specific enough to settle, each against a named line in a filing.

Trading operating profit for FY2026 — operating profit less other income, from the consolidated statement of profit or loss. It ran at Rp1,001.1 billion in H1 2026 against Rp1,680.9 billion for all of FY2025. A full year above roughly Rp1,950 billion would mean the trading business, not the currency, is doing the work; a year near Rp1,700 billion would confirm that three years of profit growth have come from items outside the trade.

The "Others" line inside Note 29. It reached Rp186.5 billion in FY2025 and Rp160.0 billion in six months without a breakdown. A disclosed composition, or a year in which it recedes toward the Rp64.6 billion of FY2023, would resolve how much of reported operating profit is durable.

Second-half sales and earnings per share against the consensus-implied Rp37.27 trillion and Rp29.49. The FY2026 annual report settles both, and the quarterly filings settle them sooner. A second half merely level with H2 2025 puts FY2026 earnings per share near Rp89.8, which is where the trailing figure already sits.

One limitation is worth stating plainly: live web research was unavailable during this pass, so post-filing analyst revisions, any company guidance issued alongside the interim statements, and the market's reaction to them could not be checked. The corpus contains no earnings-call transcripts for Erajaya, so management's own account of the half is not quotable here.

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What the state owes Erajaya

The second-largest asset Erajaya owns is money the Indonesian tax office is holding: Rp3.51 trillion of estimated claims for tax refund at 30 June 2026, plus Rp1.95 trillion of prepaid taxes. Together that is 57.6% of equity attributable to owners and 88.7% of the company's market value. The multi-year record shows the claims come back at close to face value — and that they have never come back fast enough to stop the pile growing.

Erajaya imports. Indonesian Article 22 withholding tax is levied on the value of goods crossing the border, not on the profit earned selling them, and a distributor whose parent-company taxable income is a thin slice of import value will overpay every year by construction. In 2025 the parent credited Rp1,655.3 billion of Article 22 tax against a current tax charge of Rp152.1 billion — it prepaid 10.9 times what it owed — and booked the Rp1,550.6 billion difference as a refund claim for the year [1]. In 2024 the ratio was 19.6 times: Rp1,412.4 billion credited against Rp72.1 billion charged [1]. This is not a one-off dispute or a contested assessment. It is the arithmetic of the business model meeting the arithmetic of the tax code.

Sources: consolidated statement of financial position at 30 June 2026 [2] and Note 22 Equity [3]; interest equivalent derived at the midpoint of the 6.50%-7.25% Rupiah bank-loan rates disclosed for 2025 [4]; market value at Rp386 on 15,950,000,000 shares.

How the balance grew

The pile was not always this size. In the IPO offering memorandum, consolidated estimated claims for tax refund were Rp29.6 billion at 31 December 2008, Rp13.9 billion at 31 December 2010 and Rp4.2 billion at 30 June 2011 [5]. Claims were then a rounding error against a business that recovered its withholding inside the year.

Sources: consolidated statements of financial position, FY2022 Annual Report [6], FY2023 Annual Report [7], FY2025 Annual Report [8] and the 30 June 2026 interim statements [2].

The step change happened in one year. The balance was Rp1,283.2 billion at the end of 2022 and Rp1,935.1 billion at the end of 2023 [7]. It reached Rp3,639.1 billion at the end of 2024 and has sat near that level since [8]. The vintage tables explain it: at the end of 2023 the parent carried one year's claim, the 2023 vintage of Rp1,277.5 billion [9]. At the end of 2024 it carried two, the 2023 vintage of Rp1,276.0 billion and the 2024 vintage of Rp1,400.5 billion [10]. Nothing was written off; the recovery cycle simply lengthened by a year, and two years of claims have been outstanding at every balance sheet date since.

One reading of the June 2026 balance sheet deserves correcting. Almost the whole block — Rp3,500.4 billion of Rp3,513.4 billion — sits in non-current assets [2]. That is not a new judgement about collectability. It is the normal state: 99.7% was non-current at 31 December 2022 and 98.5% at 31 December 2023 [6] [7]. A claim becomes current only once the tax office issues its assessment letter, and those letters arrived on 12 December 2024 and 11 December 2025 — which is why the two most recent December balance sheets showed a current chunk and the June one does not [11].

The collection record

On the evidence in the filings, this is a good receivable. The tax office has assessed the parent's last two claims within a whisker of what was claimed, and the money has followed.

Sources: Note 31 Taxation, Tax Assessment Letters, 30 June 2026 interim statements [11] [12]; FY2025 Annual Report Note 31 [13]. Parent claim-year timing derived from the vintage tables.

The parent claimed Rp1,277,480,958 thousand for fiscal 2023 and was assessed Rp1,276,019,035 thousand — a shortfall of Rp1.46 billion, or 0.114%, charged to income tax expense [13]. For fiscal 2024 it claimed Rp1,398,956,846 thousand and was assessed Rp1,398,926,603 thousand, a shortfall of Rp30.2 million on Rp1.4 trillion [11]. Once assessed, subsidiaries were paid in one to two months: TAM's Rp385.7 billion was assessed on 24 June 2025 and paid on 21 July 2025 [13]. Older vintages clear too — the subsidiary tail from 2020, 2021 and 2022 has worked its way off the table [10].

The one contested case cuts the other way and should be named. Subsidiary SES claimed a Rp20,983,111 thousand refund for fiscal 2024 and instead received an underpayment assessment of Rp99,050 thousand; it lodged an objection with the Directorate General of Taxes on 19 May 2026 and had no decision as at the reporting date [12]. That is a claim rejected in full. It is also Rp21.0 billion — 0.6% of the block. A pattern of denials on that scale would matter; a single one at this size does not.

Money out, money in

What the balance does not do is shrink. The parent's claim for a year is settled roughly two years after the withholding is paid, by which time one or two further years have accrued behind it.

Sources: claim arising per year from Note 31 vintage tables, FY2023 Annual Report [9], FY2024 Annual Report [10], FY2025 Annual Report [14] and the 30 June 2026 interim statements [15]; refunds collected derived as the year-on-year fall in each vintage.

Two periods stand out. In 2024 the parent collected nothing: its 2023 vintage went from Rp1,277.5 billion to Rp1,276.0 billion over the year, and the Rp1.5 billion difference was the assessment shortfall booked to tax expense, not cash [9] [10]. That is the year the block doubled. In the first half of 2026 the opposite happened and the block still barely moved: Rp1,398.4 billion of the 2024 vintage came back, while a new 2026 claim of Rp1,305.0 billion accrued in the same six months, leaving the consolidated balance down Rp114.2 billion at Rp3,513.4 billion [15].

Six months of 2026 generated 84% of a full 2025's claim. If the second half accrues at the same rate, the 2026 vintage lands near Rp2.6 trillion against Rp1.55 trillion for 2025, and the block moves above Rp4 trillion before the 2025 vintage is collected. Growth in imports is what feeds it, so the balance scales with sales rather than mean-reverting.

This also makes the cash tax line hard to read on its own. Income taxes paid were Rp2,067.1 billion in 2024 and Rp592.4 billion in 2025 [16], then Rp705.2 billion in the first half of 2025 against Rp218.4 billion in the first half of 2026 [17]. Those swings track when refunds landed, not whether the withholding slowed.

What the float costs

At 30 June 2026 the group carried Rp6,157.9 billion of interest-bearing debt excluding leases against Rp1,312.4 billion of cash [18] [2]. The refund claims alone equal 57% of that debt; add the Rp1,947.2 billion of prepaid taxes and the tax authorities hold the equivalent of 89% of everything Erajaya has borrowed [2].

Rupiah bank facilities carried 6.50% to 7.25% during 2025 [4]. Applying that band to the Rp3,513.4 billion of claims gives Rp228 billion to Rp255 billion a year of interest that would not be paid if the money were in the bank — against Rp1,196.0 billion of profit attributable to owners in 2025 [19], and against Rp527.0 billion of group interest expense before lease interest [20]. Roughly a fifth of what the owners earn, and close to half the group's interest bill, is the price of a two-year interest-free loan to the state. No interest compensation on the refunds appears anywhere in the filings.

The same fact shows up in the return on equity. Profit attributable to owners of Rp1,196.0 billion on Rp9,141.6 billion of owners' equity at the end of 2025 is 13.1% [19] [21]. Measured against the Rp5,514.0 billion of equity left after setting the refund claims aside, it is 21.7%. The trading business earns a respectable return; a third of the capital behind it is parked. That decomposition is illustrative rather than exact — the block is funded by a mix of debt, payables and equity, not by equity alone — but it locates where the shortfall between a 13% return and a 22% one comes from.

What a haircut would actually do

For an investor buying at 0.65 times book, what matters is how much of that discount is protection against the block being worth less than stated. Not much of it, on this arithmetic: the block would have to be badly wrong before the multiple stopped looking low.

Source: derived from equity attributable to owners of Rp9,479,969 million and 15,950,000,000 shares at 30 June 2026 [3], applying stated write-downs to the Rp3,513.4 billion of refund claims [2].

Writing off a quarter of the block takes price-to-book from 0.65 to 0.72. Writing off the whole of it — against an observed assessment record of 0.114% and 0.002% shortfalls — takes it to 1.03. The credit question, on the evidence available, is close to settled; the discount to book is not compensation for it.

The read this chapter supports is that the refund claims are a duration problem, not a solvency or accounting one. They convert at par, on a cycle of roughly two years, and they grow with imports — which means they consume cash permanently while the business expands and would release Rp3.5 trillion, more than half the market value, only if growth stopped or the withholding mechanism changed. The strongest fact against that read is the SES objection: one subsidiary claim was denied in full and remains unresolved, and if that becomes a pattern rather than an exception the credit assumption underneath everything above weakens. Three things in the next two filings would settle it. Whether the 2025 vintage of Rp1,550.6 billion receives its assessment letter around December 2026, which would confirm the two-year cycle rather than a lengthening one. Whether the 2026 vintage annualises near Rp2.6 trillion, which would push the block past Rp4 trillion. And how the Directorate General of Taxes rules on the SES objection.

The cash that never reaches owners in this business is not lost to weak margins alone — a meaningful share of it is on deposit with the Indonesian tax office, earning nothing, and financed at 7%.