Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 3 brokers · 334 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-09.
Only two brokers carry Erajaya's FY-2026 to FY-2028 lines, so read this as a sample of the street rather than a consensus. Those models sit close together on the top line, and the interesting movement is underneath it: handset gross margin compresses from 9.6% in FY-2025 to 7.4% in FY-2027, while Accessories & Others is modelled to carry the profit growth. The second swing is working capital, where days inventory outstanding jumps from 45.6 to 60.9 days in FY-2026 and the cash conversion cycle from 28.7 to 40.2 days before both unwind. Blended gross margin barely moves through all of it, holding between 10.8% and 11.3%.
Two brokers carry every forward year — these are model points, not a consensus
The FY-2025 column has three brokers and was last revised on 2026-03-04; FY-2026 through FY-2028 have two, with the newest revisions dated 2026-07-09. The only quarterly columns in the feed, 3QFY-2025 and 4QFY-2025, are single-broker and were last touched on 2025-09-11, so their min/max ranges are not dispersion at all. Where a line below drops to one broker, treat it as one analyst's assumption.
Accessories & Others gross profit rises 54% in FY-2026 while handset gross profit falls
Handsets remain the bulk of both revenue and gross profit, but the models take handset gross margin from 9.6% down to 7.4% by FY-2027 and lean on Accessories & Others, modelled at 27.3% gross margin in FY-2026. Accessories is also the least stable line here: its margin fades again through FY-2028 on a wide two-broker range, so the profit hand-off is an assumption to test, not a settled trend. Operator products shrink in every modelled year and turn gross-margin negative by FY-2028.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net sales - Cellular phones & tablets(IDRB) | Rp56,768.85bn | Rp61,305.90bn | Rp66,090.89bn | Rp72,701.68bn | +8.0% | 3 |
| Net sales - Acessories & Others(IDRB) | Rp10,868.27bn | Rp14,041.96bn | Rp15,791.86bn | Rp16,341.39bn | +29.2% | 3 |
| Net sales - Computer & other electronic devices(IDRB) | Rp2,896.26bn | Rp3,324.68bn | Rp3,652.92bn | Rp4,003.54bn | +14.8% | 3 |
| Net sales - Operator products(IDRB) | Rp1,641.35bn | Rp1,443.35bn | Rp1,422.20bn | Rp1,394.48bn | -12.1% | 3 |
| Segment gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross profit/(loss) - Cellular phones & tablets(IDRB) | Rp5,450.78bn | Rp5,008.78bn | Rp4,846.05bn | Rp6,208.68bn | -8.1% | 3 |
| Gross profit/(loss) - Acessories & Others(IDRB) | Rp2,413.40bn | Rp3,725.31bn | Rp3,664.89bn | Rp3,049.18bn | +54.4% | 3 |
| Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross margin - Cellular phones & tablets(%) | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | -1.4pt | 3 |
| Gross margin - Accessories & Others(%) | 22.2% | 27.3% | 23.9% | 18.0% | +5.1pt | 3 |
| Gross margin - Operator products(%) | 3.8% | 10.0% | 0.3% | -11.1% | +6.3pt | 3 |
| Gross margin - Computer & other electronic devices(%) | 7.2% | 12.4% | 15.6% | 16.7% | +5.1pt | 3 |
Handset revenue growth is all price: units fall about 4% in FY-2026 as ASP rises 12%
Unit volumes are modelled essentially flat across the whole horizon while ASP rises in every year, so the handset line depends on the mix continuing to shift up rather than on the Indonesian handset market growing. Store count, net additions and distribution centres come from a single broker from FY-2026 onward, which makes the footprint rows a plan rather than a consensus view.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units & price | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Volume - Cellular phones & tablets(M#) | 10.69m Number | 10.25m Number | 10.50m Number | 10.81m Number | -4.1% | 3 |
| ASP - Cellular phones & tablets(IDRB) | Rp5.33m | Rp5.98m | Rp6.29m | Rp6.73m | +12.2% | 3 |
| Footprint | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Retail outlets(#) | 2,359 Number | 2,571 Number | 2,771 Number | 2,971 Number | +9.0% | 3 |
| Retail outlets - Net addition(#) | 146.3 Number | 100.0 Number | 200.0 Number | 200.0 Number | -31.7% | 3 |
| Distribution Centers(#) | 94.50 Number | 103.0 Number | 105.0 Number | 107.0 Number | +9.0% | 2 |
Inventory builds 49% in FY-2026, stretching days inventory to 60.9 and lifting net debt
The build is funded rather than earned: free cash flow per share is modelled to dip in FY-2026 and then more than double in FY-2027 as days inventory unwinds. Payables absorb only part of the swing, with days payable barely moving against the jump in days inventory, so the cash conversion cycle stretches from 28.7 to 40.2 days. Net debt peaks in FY-2026 and declines thereafter on these models.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Inventories, net(IDRB) | Rp8,004.47bn | Rp11,920.32bn | Rp12,080.94bn | Rp12,243.00bn | +48.9% | 3 |
| Days inventory outstanding, COGS-based(Days) | 45.62 Ratio | 60.90 Ratio | 57.03 Ratio | 53.22 Ratio | +33.5% | 3 |
| Days payables outstanding, COGS-based(Days) | 25.30 Ratio | 29.25 Ratio | 29.40 Ratio | 26.87 Ratio | +15.6% | 3 |
| Cash conversion cycle, COGS-based(Days) | 28.71 Ratio | 40.21 Ratio | 36.29 Ratio | 35.02 Ratio | +40.1% | 3 |
| Funding & cash | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net debt(IDRB) | Rp4,521.17bn | Rp7,045.42bn | Rp6,238.91bn | Rp5,860.71bn | +55.8% | 3 |
| Free cash flow (FCF) per share(IDR) | Rp43.77 | Rp36.61 | Rp88.96 | Rp73.27 | -16.4% | 3 |
Segment margins swing hard, but blended gross margin holds between 10.8% and 11.3%
Across FY-2025 to FY-2028 the models move accessories gross margin up to 27.3% and back down, computer and electronics from 7.2% to 16.7%, and operator products to negative, yet blended gross margin never leaves a 10.8% to 11.3% band. On this model set Erajaya's earnings path is a volume, footprint and working-capital story rather than a margin story, which is where a challenge to the street should be aimed.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.