Chapter 2

What three years of accounts show

Erajaya's sales grew 12.9% a year over FY2023–FY2025 and profit attributable to owners grew 20.3% a year, but the trading margin did not improve: operating profit before the "other income" line was flat between FY2024 and FY2025, and almost all of the increase in reported operating profit came from foreign-exchange gains and an undisclosed residual. The half year to 30 June 2026 is much stronger than the annual record and much stronger than consensus, which still models FY2026 revenue below the twelve months already reported.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report, Key Financial Data Overview [1]; H1 2026 interim statements [2]. Growth rates and trailing earnings derived from reported figures; trailing EPS is FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026.

The income statement, line by line

The three audited years and the two most recent half years sit below in one frame. Sales rose from Rp60.14 trillion in FY2023 to Rp76.61 trillion in FY2025 [3], and profit attributable to owners from Rp826.0 billion to Rp1,196.0 billion [4] [5]. Basic earnings per share moved Rp52.34, Rp65.42, Rp75.68.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report, Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss [6] and attribution [7]; audited FY2023 statements [8] [9]; 30 June 2026 interim statements, sales and operating profit [10] and profit attributable to owners [11]. Figures rounded to the nearest billion rupiah, so lines may not sum exactly. Finance income and associates combines the two lines as reported.

Three features carry through. The gross margin sits in a narrow band — 10.72%, 11.15%, 10.90% — so gross profit tracks volume, not pricing power. Operating expenses grew faster than gross profit in FY2025: gross profit added Rp1,075.6 billion while selling, distribution, general and administrative costs added Rp1,049.7 billion. And the share of profit leaking to minority holders is rising, from 3.6% of group profit in FY2023 [12] to 8.9% in FY2025 [13] and 10.1% in H1 2026 [14].

Where the extra operating profit came from

Strip the "other income" line out of operating profit and the picture changes. Trading operating profit — gross profit less selling, distribution, general and administrative costs, less other expenses — was Rp1,552.4 billion in FY2023, Rp1,690.5 billion in FY2024 and Rp1,680.9 billion in FY2025. That is a 0.6% decline in the year sales grew 17.4%, and a fall in the trading margin from 2.59% to 2.19% of sales.

Source: derived from the consolidated statements of profit or loss, FY2025 Annual Report [15] and audited FY2023 statements [16]. Trading operating profit is operating profit less other income.

Reported operating profit rose Rp302.6 billion in FY2025. Other income rose Rp312.2 billion. The note behind that line shows what moved: a net foreign-exchange gain of Rp203.0 billion against Rp19.5 billion the year before, and an "Others" residual of Rp186.5 billion against Rp85.2 billion [17]. Those two items together supplied Rp284.7 billion, or 94% of the increase in operating profit. Promotion support from suppliers — the item most tied to the trading business — added only Rp26.8 billion.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report, Note 29 Other Income [18]; audited FY2023 statements, Note 29 [19]. Rp billion. The residual column folds in gains and losses on fixed-asset disposals, lease write-offs and the undisclosed "Others" line.

The same pattern runs through the first half of 2026. Operating profit rose Rp317.0 billion year on year; other income rose Rp192.2 billion of that, with the foreign-exchange gain up Rp31.4 billion and the "Others" residual up Rp105.2 billion to Rp160.0 billion [20]. Trading operating profit did grow — Rp876.3 billion to Rp1,001.1 billion, up 14.2% — but on 22.4% sales growth, so the trading margin still slipped, from 2.50% to 2.33%.

The strongest fact against reading this as low-quality earnings is that foreign-exchange gains on an importer's dollar payables are a real economic outcome, not an accrual: Erajaya buys in dollars and sells in rupiah, so a firmer rupiah genuinely lowers the landed cost of inventory. What is not established is repeatability. A currency gain is a price outcome the company does not control, and the "Others" residual — Rp186.5 billion in FY2025, Rp160.0 billion in six months — is disclosed as a single unexplained figure. My read is that the FY2025 profit growth should be treated as substantially non-recurring until a year appears in which trading operating profit itself grows; the evidence that would settle it is a full year of the "Others" line broken out, or an FY2026 in which trading operating profit grows at least in line with sales.

Cash against reported profit

Over the three years, reported profit and operating cash flow are close in total — Rp3,289 billion against Rp3,347 billion — but neither the year-by-year path nor the after-investment position is comfortable.

Sources: FY2025 Annual Report, Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows [21]; audited FY2023 statements, operating and investing [22] and financing [23]; 30 June 2026 interim cash flow statement, operating and investing [24] and lease liabilities in financing [25]. Lease payments sit in financing activities, so operating cash flow is stated before them.

Lease payments are the adjustment that matters for a retailer with this store estate. Erajaya paid Rp2,319 billion of lease liabilities across the three years, all of it classified as financing. Deduct those and the three-year capital expenditure of Rp2,619 billion from Rp3,347 billion of operating cash, and the group consumed Rp1,591 billion of cash over FY2023–FY2025 while reporting Rp3,289 billion of profit. The five-year version of that arithmetic sits in Business and Balance Sheet; the three-year window with leases included is worse, not better.

The second gap is tax. The income statement charged Rp1,326 billion of tax across the three years; the cash flow statement shows Rp3,788 billion actually paid [26] [27]. The difference is the Article 22 import withholding regime: the parent alone credited Rp1,655.3 billion of Article 22 tax in FY2025 against a current tax charge of Rp152.1 billion [28]. The balance sheet carries the result: Rp1,440.2 billion of current and Rp2,187.4 billion of non-current estimated claims for tax refund, plus Rp1,823.1 billion of prepaid taxes, at 31 December 2025 [29]. Whether that Rp5.45 trillion is collectible on the terms the accounts assume is the asset-quality question this chapter does not resolve; what it does establish is that reported earnings and cash have been separated by tax timing, not only by working capital.

H1 2026 is the counter-evidence. Operating cash flow of Rp1,864.0 billion covered capex of Rp434.1 billion and lease payments of Rp493.4 billion [30] with Rp936.5 billion to spare, and cash taxes paid fell to Rp218.4 billion from Rp705.2 billion a year earlier [31].

The half year just filed

Sales for the six months to 30 June 2026 were Rp42.90 trillion against Rp35.05 trillion, up 22.4%; profit attributable to owners was Rp784.0 billion against Rp568.3 billion, up 38.0%; earnings per share Rp50.09 against Rp36.00 [32] [33]. The effective tax rate fell to 24.1% from 29.8% [34].

Part of that growth is a change in the consolidation perimeter rather than trading. PT Era Blu Elektronik — the Erablue electronics venture — appears as a 55.00%-owned subsidiary at 30 June 2026 with total assets before eliminations of Rp1,968.8 billion, against no holding shown for 2025 [35]. Its Rp303.05 billion carrying cost left the joint-venture line on the change of control [36], and it now carries Rp331.2 billion of the Rp1,464.6 billion minority-interest balance [37]. By product line, computers and consumer electronics rose 80.6% and Active and Lifestyle goods rose 244.8%, against 16.7% for cellular phones and tablets [38]. The interim statements do not disclose how much revenue Erablue contributed after consolidation, so the organic growth rate cannot be separated from the filings. That is a real limit on extrapolating the half.

Supplier mix also moved. Purchases from Apple South Asia fell to Rp13.70 trillion, 31.94% of consolidated net sales, from Rp16.59 trillion and 47.35% a year earlier, while Samsung purchases rose to Rp7.06 trillion, or 16.46% [39].

Consensus against the run rate

The consensus set carried in this report is dated 29 July 2026: FY2026 revenue of Rp80.17 trillion and earnings per share of Rp79.58, FY2027 revenue of Rp84.03 trillion and earnings per share of Rp97.50, with a mean twelve-month target of Rp504 and no sell ratings in any of the compilations. Those figures sit against a scheduled reporting date of 30 July 2026, and the corpus does not establish whether individual analysts had already marked their models to the interim statements already lodged.

Sources: actuals from the FY2025 Annual Report [40] and the 30 June 2026 interim statements, sales and profit for the period [41]; FY2026 and FY2027 lines are consensus estimates compiled for this report, dated 29 July 2026. Trailing twelve months is FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026.

The arithmetic of the gap is straightforward. Trailing twelve-month revenue of Rp84.46 trillion already exceeds the FY2027 consensus revenue line of Rp84.03 trillion, and trailing earnings per share of Rp89.77 sits 12.8% above the FY2026 consensus of Rp79.58. For the FY2026 revenue estimate to hold, the second half must deliver Rp37.27 trillion — 10.3% below the Rp41.56 trillion of H2 2025 and 13.1% below the half just reported. For the earnings estimate to hold, second-half earnings per share must be Rp29.49, against Rp39.68 in H2 2025: a 25.7% fall year on year and a 41.1% fall from the half just reported. The second half has been the weaker half on earnings per share in two of the three years available and on revenue in one [42], so a softer H2 is not itself unusual — but the largest sequential decline in the record is 2.9% on revenue, in H2 2024, and 19.9% on earnings per share, in H2 2023. The consensus implies a step down several times larger than either.

Sources: half-year sales from the 30 June 2024 [43] and 30 June 2026 [44] interim statements; full-year sales from the FY2025 Annual Report [45] and audited FY2023 statements [46]. Second-half figures are full year less first half; the final bar is the FY2026 consensus revenue estimate less reported H1 2026.

The FY2027 estimate is internally different in character. Revenue growth of 4.8% on the FY2026 base with earnings per share up 22.5% implies profit to owners of roughly Rp1.53 trillion on Rp84.03 trillion of sales — an owner net margin near 1.82%, above anything the group has posted for a full year, though H1 2026 ran at 1.83%. So the FY2026 number understates a revenue line the company has already passed, while the FY2027 number leans on a margin the company has only held for six months.

Sources: closing price of Rp386 on 28 July 2026 [47]; equity attributable to owners of the parent of Rp9,479.97 billion at 30 June 2026 on 15.95 billion shares in issue [48]; earnings per share as tabulated above. Multiples derived.

At Rp386 the market pays 4.3 times what the company has already earned in the last twelve months and 0.65 times the book value of the equity owners hold. The gap between the consensus multiple of 4.85 times and the trailing multiple of 4.30 times is the difference between an estimate dated before the interim filing and earnings already reported.

What would change the read

Three checks are specific enough to settle, each against a named line in a filing.

Trading operating profit for FY2026 — operating profit less other income, from the consolidated statement of profit or loss. It ran at Rp1,001.1 billion in H1 2026 against Rp1,680.9 billion for all of FY2025. A full year above roughly Rp1,950 billion would mean the trading business, not the currency, is doing the work; a year near Rp1,700 billion would confirm that three years of profit growth have come from items outside the trade.

The "Others" line inside Note 29. It reached Rp186.5 billion in FY2025 and Rp160.0 billion in six months without a breakdown. A disclosed composition, or a year in which it recedes toward the Rp64.6 billion of FY2023, would resolve how much of reported operating profit is durable.

Second-half sales and earnings per share against the consensus-implied Rp37.27 trillion and Rp29.49. The FY2026 annual report settles both, and the quarterly filings settle them sooner. A second half merely level with H2 2025 puts FY2026 earnings per share near Rp89.8, which is where the trailing figure already sits.

One limitation is worth stating plainly: live web research was unavailable during this pass, so post-filing analyst revisions, any company guidance issued alongside the interim statements, and the market's reaction to them could not be checked. The corpus contains no earnings-call transcripts for Erajaya, so management's own account of the half is not quotable here.